The Western Conference playoff race is a beautiful mess right now. Every night seeds change all over the place. The Lakers won on Tuesday and dropped in the standings. All you can do is stay updated with current seeds, matchups, tiebreaker scenarios, and projections each morning. We’ve got you covered.
Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Western Conference playoff and play-in races entering play on Wednesday. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season or until all seeds are clinched.
Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the No. 8 seed.
READ: Eastern Conference playoff picture
NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Nuggets have lost four straight and their once-firm grip on the top seed is starting to loosen. With 13 games to play, the Nuggets lead the No. 2 Grizzlies by an effective four games with the tiebreaker secured, and they lead the No. 3 Kings by four in the loss column with one matchup remaining. So it’s not doom and gloom. But it’s going in the wrong direction.
- Projected seed: 1
- Current first-round matchup: TBD
- Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Denver has clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Denver leads season series 2-0 with two to play
Memphis leads the No. 3 Kings by one in the loss column.
- Projected seed: 2
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Timberwolves-Thunder play-in winner
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Nuggets have clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Kings currently own via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Grizzlies own via division leader
3. Sacramento Kings (40-27)
Sacramento has an outside shot at catching Denver for the top seed. They trail the Nuggets by four in the loss column with 15 games to play. One of those is head-to-head with the Nuggets, which will also decide the season tiebreaker.
- Projected seed: 3
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Kings currently own via conference win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
4. Phoenix Suns (37-32)
The Suns lost to Milwaukee on Tuesday and are now just one game up in the loss column on the No. 5 Warriors and No. 6 Clippers.
- Projected seed: 4
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Warriors
- Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Grizzlies own via division leader
- Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Suns have clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Suns currently own via conference win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
5. Golden State Warriors (36-33)
The Warriors trail the No. 4 Suns by an affective two games as Phoenix has clinched the tiebreaker. Golden State is tied with the No. 6 Clippers with one head-to-head matchup remaining.
- Projected seed: 6
- Current first-round matchup: at Suns
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns have clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Warriors clinched
6. Los Angeles Clippers (36-33)
The Clippers are tied in the loss column with the No. 5 Warriors with one matchup remaining. They trail the No. 4 Suns by just one, with one head-to-head matchup remaining.
- Projected seed: 5
- Current first-round matchup: at Kings
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks currently own via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Clippers clinched
Play-In Tournament
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (35-34)
Minnesota defeated Atlanta on Monday and is one game up in the loss column on the 8-10 seeds.
- Projected seed: 9
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Thunder (Play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Wolves currently own via division record
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Wolves clinched
8. Oklahoma City Thunder (34-35)
The Thunder sit in a three-way tie with the No. 9 Mavericks and No. 10 Lakers. In tiebreaker scenarios that include more than two teams, the nod, in order, goes to the team with the best win percentage in all head-to-head matchups among the teams involved.
- Projected seed: Lottery
- Current first-round matchup: at Timberwolves (Play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: OKC clinched
9. Dallas Mavericks (34-35)
See No. 8 Thunder section for a three-way tie breakdown.
- Projected seed: 7
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Lakers (Play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns owns via conference win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Dallas currently owns via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
10. Los Angeles Lakers (34-35)
See No. 8 Thunder section for a three-way tie breakdown.
- Projected seed: 8
- Current first-round matchup: at Mavericks (Play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Lakers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage
Outside Looking In
11. Utah Jazz (33-36)
Utah lost a tight one in Miami on Monday and sits one loss out of a play-in spot.
- Projected seed: Lottery
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Jazz Clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
12. New Orleans Pelicans (33-36)
SportsLine projections still have the Pelicans slipping into the play-in.
- Projected seed: 10
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Lakers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Pelicans clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Pelicans clinched
The Blazers are fading, having lost seven of their last 10.
- Projected seed: Lottery
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder clinched